Commodity: soy

Soybeans are grown as a food crop in East Asia and produced in Western agriculture as a source of oil and protein. The United States, Brazil, Argentina, Canada, Paraguay and Uruguay are the largest global soybean producers and exporters, accounting for more than 85.0% of global production. For many years, the United States was the world's leading producer and exporter of soybeans.

Due to pressure from favorable US weather, uncertainties surrounding exports to China, and record harvest expectations in Brazil, soybean futures dropped toward $9.60 per bushel, which is close to December 2024 lows. Prices are down 4.5% for the month and 3% for the week, resulting in a second weekly loss. According to Brazilian agencies, soybean production will exceed 179 million tons in 2025–2026, significantly above USDA projections. In the meantime, tensions increased as President Trump threatened to further punish China and announced new tariffs, 25% on India and 50% on Brazil, raising the stakes for US soybean exports. While Brazil may hit 112 million tons, the USDA anticipates that US soybean sales to China will drop to 47.5 million tons. This shift is rerouting trade toward global trade flows, potentially increasing US exports to the EU, Egypt, and Turkey, while pressuring Ukrainian soybean prices. In Ukraine, production may drop by over 1 million tons due to a 24% cut in sown area and an added 10% export duty, further weakening prices in September.

Soybean is one of the protein powder and oilseed products. During the period 2021/2022, about 162.76 million tons of soybeans are imported globally. China is by far the top soybean importer, with an annual import volume of about 97 million tons that year. The soybean market is forecast to record a CAGR of 3.5% during the forecast period (2022-2027). The soybean market is driven by the increasing adoption of vegan diets in Western countries due to the popularity of plant-rich proteins in the diet. The enhanced health awareness of consumers due to higher living standards also has a positive impact on the market.