Commodity: coal_ncf

Since the beginning of industrialization in the 19th century, coal has had a significant impact on the world's energy supply. To this day, coal remains one of the main energy sources among all non-renewable resources. The use of hard coal, the most important type of coal, has increased even slightly in recent years. Coal also has the largest reserves of all non-renewable energy sources. Global coal production has continued to increase in recent years, reaching the equivalent of nearly 168 exajoules in 2019. In 2020, global coal production will decline slightly to 159.6 exajoules. The top hard coal producing countries are China, India, the United States, Australia and Indonesia.

In an effort to counteract oversupply in several industries, thermal coal futures out of Newcastle Port increased to $115 per tonne, the highest level in six months. In its most recent attempt to reduce the excess of electricity feedstock, Beijing said that it will close mines that produce more coal than they are allowed to. In an effort to capitalize on reduced prices and avoid more extreme pressures in its producer deflationary momentum, the Chinese government reportedly ordered factories to raise their coal stocks by 10%. Nevertheless, China's coal production increased 3.6% in June compared to the same month last year, which was consistent with the prior indication that it would increase production by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons this year following the record output in 2024. On the demand front, Chinese fossil-fuel power output dropped by 4.7% annually in the first quarter amid lower power demand and strong supply from renewable energy sources. Still, added infrastructure spending put a floor on power demand.

The global coal market's supply and demand will change as a result of the U.S.-China trade war, particularly in light of China's 15% tariff on American coal in retaliation for President Trump's 10% tariff on Chinese imports. India continues to be the world's largest user of U.S. coal, using around 25% of all U.S. coal exports, despite China being the world's largest importer. In contrast, 2024 data obtained from the EIA shows that only 11% of U.S. coal exports are sent to China. Chinese steelmakers may look for alternate coal supplies as a result of supply chains becoming more complicated due to uncertainty in U.S.-China trade ties. The United States may decide to diversify its coal export market or cut output in order to decrease coal exports to China as a result of tariffs. Despite being the largest importer of coal worldwide, China also depends on other suppliers, including Russia, Australia, Mongolia, and Indonesia. China might shift its focus more toward other suppliers, like those in Australia and Mongolia.