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Since the beginning of industrialization in the 19th century, coal has had a significant impact on the world's energy supply. To this day, coal remains one of the main energy sources among all non-renewable resources. The use of hard coal, the most important type of coal, has increased even slightly in recent years. Coal also has the largest reserves of all non-renewable energy sources. Global coal production has continued to increase in recent years, reaching the equivalent of nearly 168 exajoules in 2019. In 2020, global coal production will decline slightly to 159.6 exajoules. The top hard coal producing countries are China, India, the United States, Australia and Indonesia.

ICI Coal, the benchmark for Indonesia, traded just around $47 a ton. The demand for power generation and seaborne coal prices fell precipitously at the beginning of the quarter due to a warmer winter in China and other key Asian importers. In the first two months of the year, this exacerbated the 1.3% annual decline in output from Chinese fossil-fuel power plants. Coal production was still strong, though. Even though the market for thermal coal was restrained by increasing expenditures in alternative power sources, Indonesian production reached a record 836 million tonnes last year, surpassing its initial target by 18%. Additionally, China plans to boost output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tons this year after the record amount of output in 2024. This is despite elevated stockpiles domestically and in its Asian neighbors at the turn of the spring season, forcing miners to cut prices to find clients.

The global coal market's supply and demand will change as a result of the U.S.-China trade war, particularly in light of China's 15% tariff on American coal in retaliation for President Trump's 10% tariff on Chinese imports. India continues to be the world's largest user of U.S. coal, using around 25% of all U.S. coal exports, despite China being the world's largest importer. In contrast, 2024 data obtained from the EIA shows that only 11% of U.S. coal exports are sent to China. Chinese steelmakers may look for alternate coal supplies as a result of supply chains becoming more complicated due to uncertainty in U.S.-China trade ties. The United States may decide to diversify its coal export market or cut output in order to decrease coal exports to China as a result of tariffs. Despite being the largest importer of coal worldwide, China also depends on other suppliers, including Russia, Australia, Mongolia, and Indonesia. China might shift its focus more toward other suppliers, like those in Australia and Mongolia.