Commodity: gold

Gold has always been one of the most valuable and coveted metals in the world. Scarcity is the main reason for its value. Estimates of global mined gold reserves fluctuate slightly from year to year, but are not higher than 50,000 tons. The countries with the largest estimated reserves are Australia, Russia and the United States. Currently, China is the world's leading gold mining country, followed by Australia and Russia.

As the most recent US jobs report reinforced expectations of a September rate drop by the Federal Reserve and provided more signs of a weakening labor market, spot gold prices increased by about 2% to surpass $3,350 per ounce on Friday. Only 73,000 jobs were added by the US economy in July, which was less than the 100,000 analysts had predicted. The job numbers for May and June were also drastically reduced. As a result, markets are now pricing in a 75% chance of a rate decrease in September, which is a significant increase from the 45% before the news. The report came after the Fed's policy outlook became even more complex after the release of stronger-than-expected PCE inflation data on Thursday, which underscored ongoing price pressures. Separately, President Trump reaffirmed plans for a 10% global base tariff and introduced new retaliatory duties of up to 41% on countries lacking trade agreements with the US. He also announced a 40% tariff on goods suspected of being rerouted through third countries to evade existing duties.

On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump declared his intention to impose a 10% universal tariff on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs expected for a number of countries. Before that announcement, most commodities, including gold and silver, were trading higher as traders expected the tariffs to lead to inflation. The demand for silver and other industrial inputs would decline if gold continued to shine as a safe haven with no industrial value, as it did during the first wave of the COVID crisis. Although gold has experienced volatile trading, prices have risen to unprecedented levels as "store-of-value investors" control the demand for the precious metal. When investors are concerned about market, fiscal, economic, and geopolitical issues, demand for store-of-value tends to rise. There's currently a spike in all those factors, which is propelling gold to all-time highs.